Session 6–“Economists Gain Optimism”

BillMonday morning I happened to see a copy of “USA Today” with the front-page headline:

“Economists Gain Optimism”

“Job Creation, Growth,

Will Pick Up Speed

Panel Predicts”

The panel consisted of forty-six economists.  What is interesting here is that for all intents and purposes the economy has been in an upturn, albeit slow and steady, for the past four years.  However, there is no doubt in my mind that you would not have seen a headline like this four years ago (maybe not even three years ago) even though things had already begun to percolate to the upside.

My question is how is this helpful to you as an investor?  And my answer that it is not.  It is worthless information.  Where were they four years ago when you needed them for support and optimistic guidance? For the most part they were, more or less, negative and cautionary about the outlook (i.e. the worst was not over yet).  The Stimulus, TARP, The Auto Bailout and very easy and stimulative monetary policy had been put in place (all the ingredients for improvement).  So, to me, our Monday banner lead headline was like sounding the  “all clear” four years after the storm had passed.

Now that these erstwhile naysayers have become more positive it is probably time for a healthy correction to get them back into a more cautionary, sober frame of mind.  The contrarian in me screams to be free.  Importantly, corrections are normal and to be anticipated.  As much as I proclaim this not to be an “advice blog”, sometimes I just cannot help myself.  So, here goes.   Now that, in the eyes of many, Long Term Investing is dead, the contrarian in me leans toward advising you not to be spooked, but be that Long Term Investor.

The information presented in represents my own opinions and does not contain recommendations for any particular investment or securities.  I may,  from time to time, mention certain securities for illustrative purpose, names where I personally hold positions.  These are not meant to be construed as recommendations to BUY or SELL.  All investments and strategies should be undertaken only after careful consideration of suitability based on the risks, tolerance for risk and personal financial situation.


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