I was chatting with a former colleague the other day and he bemoaned that all he was hearing from clients and prospective clients was their concern that the market was in a bubble, and that this may not be a good time to invest or even be invested in stocks. Of course, this is understandable because it is a common theme driven daily by the media.
Now you see it, now you don’t!
This morning I pulled up the Wall Street Journal’s Market Watch site and was amazed to see this headline: “Financials, Wal-Mart and one man’s plea to end bubble talk.” What amazed me was the part about ending “bubble talk.” It is just not normal for any media site to council against any subject that might stir fear and trepidation in the heart s of their readers. I mean stoking fear is their stock and trade. Seeing this in a page 1. headline was definitely out of character.
Well, wouldn’t you know it, one of their editors must have spotted this grievous mistake, because when I returned to the site a few minutes later, the story had vanished into the ether. Then, I checked the index for the “Need to Know” columns in MW. It was gone. Fortunately, it was still in my browser!
The blogger quoted in the ‘bubble piece’ is Joseph Fahmy, Managing Director, Zor Capital, LLC. I have never met or spoken to Joseph, but he is a kindred spirit.
That we are not in a bubble, doesn’t mean that we won’t see major corrective action sometime soon. We have come a long way without as much as a ten percent correction. Importantly, this would be normal and probably not an event heralding the end of what appears to be a market with secular legs.
A friend pointed out the following as a possible quote of Dennis Gartman, publisher of “The Gartman Letter”: ‘The definition of a Bubble is a Bull Market that you are not long of.’ I am not quite certain if these are Gartman’s words or those of some other wag, but they made me chuckle.
What is your definition?
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